HB 4857
Hopper Fiscal Risk Bill’s New Commission Can Only Write Reports
Died in committee
Verdict: Smells
All 3 charges, and why
Study, task force, commission, report
THE TEXT
…“each even-numbered year, the commission shall submit a report to”…
Bill text, introduced version (I)
The commission's duties are to meet, study, write a plan and submit a report with draft legislation. Any real action on the risks it studies waits for a future Legislature to pass those drafts.
Study, task force, commission, reportNew fee, fund, board or appointees
The bill adds a new chapter creating a standing state commission with four public members appointed by the governor, who serve unpaid but with expense reimbursement. The caption says openly that it creates the commission.
New fee, fund, board or appointeesCarve-out
THE TEXT
…“commission shall consult with and consider papers authored by”…
Bill text, introduced version (I)
The text requires the commission to consult private entities specializing in fiscal risk management and bars it from relying solely on university research, steering the study's inputs toward one kind of business. It is a mandated role rather than money, so confidence is low.
Carve-outInitial review · graded Oct 21, 2026 · Headline, summary and grade are analysis of the bill text, not a finding about any person · How we grade
Caption
relating to the creation of the Fiscal Risk Management Commission.
Caption from analyzed text · version I.
Summary
Studies dollar collapse and a contingency currency. Delivers draft bills. Must consult private firms.
The bill creates a new seven-member Fiscal Risk Management Commission led by the comptroller, with a House member, a senator, and four public members appointed by the governor. The commission must meet at least once a year and study risks such as cuts in federal money, a federal debt default, a dollar collapse, a possible contingency currency, and attacks on power and supply chains, and it must publish a plan every two years. On the ground it produces a report with draft bills for the governor and Legislature, the first due September 1, 2026, and has no power to change anything by itself.
Labels
Labels: NEVER GOT A HEARING. Filed Mar 13, 2025 and referred to the House Appropriations committee. No public hearing. The bill died.
Receipt
The receipt
89R-HB4857 · 2025-03-13
SOLD BY
+ 8 coauthors
ITEM
relating to the creation of the Fiscal Risk Management Commission.
WHAT IT DOES
Studies dollar collapse and a contingency currency. Delivers draft bills. Must consult private firms.
The bill creates a new seven-member Fiscal Risk Management Commission led by the comptroller, with a House member, a senator, and four public members appointed by the governor. The commission must meet at least once a year and study risks such as cuts in federal money, a federal debt default, a dollar collapse, a possible contingency currency, and attacks on power and supply chains, and it must publish a plan every two years. On the ground it produces a report with draft bills for the governor and Legislature, the first due September 1, 2026, and has no power to change anything by itself.
CHARGES
[x] STUDY, TASK FORCE, COMMISSION, REPORTanalysis confidence 75%
THE TEXT
…“each even-numbered year, the commission shall submit a report to”…
Bill text, introduced version (I)
The commission's duties are to meet, study, write a plan and submit a report with draft legislation. Any real action on the risks it studies waits for a future Legislature to pass those drafts.
[x] NEW FEE, FUND, BOARD OR APPOINTEESanalysis confidence 80%
The bill adds a new chapter creating a standing state commission with four public members appointed by the governor, who serve unpaid but with expense reimbursement. The caption says openly that it creates the commission.
[x] CARVE-OUTanalysis confidence 40%
THE TEXT
…“commission shall consult with and consider papers authored by”…
Bill text, introduced version (I)
The text requires the commission to consult private entities specializing in fiscal risk management and bars it from relying solely on university research, steering the study's inputs toward one kind of business. It is a mandated role rather than money, so confidence is low.
TOTAL
No fiscal note in the loaded record.
HISTORY
- Filed
- Read first time
- Referred to Appropriations
FILED UNDER
GOVERNMENT GROWTH UNDER A CONSERVATIVE BANNER
The bill creates a new permanent state commission with four new governor-appointed public seats, unpaid but reimbursed for expenses.
THANK YOU FOR CHECKING THE RECEIPT
CAMPAIGN PAID FOR BY
CAMPAIGN PAID FOR BY
Donors
Not tied to this bill.
Sources
The author's campaign account only. Own money and internal transfers are separate on the member page.
Derived itemized flow · Oct 27, 2024 to Oct 24, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.
Derived itemized contributions on live regular reports and uncovered special-session dates. Internal account transfers and daily reports are excluded.
Texans United for a Conservative Majority PAC$165,000.00
Texans United for a Conservative Majority PAC
$165,000.00
- Cash
- $145,000.00
- Paid by others
- $20,000.00
- Total
- $165,000.00
Also funds 30 other sitting lawmakers.
Derived recipient stock · Sep 3, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.
TEC account match.
TeamSources
Derived itemized flow · Jun 30, 2025 to Jul 13, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.
Derived itemized contributions on live regular reports and uncovered special-session dates. Internal account transfers and daily reports are excluded.
Report IDs: 101012447, 101031840, 101035276, 101045753, 101059537, 101069128.
Texas Trial Lawyers Association PAC$111,000.00
Texas Trial Lawyers Association PAC
$111,000.00
- Cash
- $105,000.00
- Paid by others
- $6,000.00
- Total
- $111,000.00
Also funds 137 other sitting lawmakers.
Derived recipient stock · Jul 24, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.
TEC account match.
TeamSources
Derived itemized flow · Jun 23, 2025 to Oct 18, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.
Derived itemized contributions on live regular reports and uncovered special-session dates. Internal account transfers and daily reports are excluded.
Report IDs: 101012447, 101031840, 101035276, 101045753, 101072124.
Texans for Truth and Liberty PAC$106,000.00
Texans for Truth and Liberty PAC
$106,000.00
- Cash
- $100,000.00
- Paid by others
- $6,000.00
- Total
- $106,000.00
Also funds 44 other sitting lawmakers.
Derived recipient stock · Jun 24, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.
TEC account match.
TeamSources
Derived itemized flow · Jun 25, 2025 to Feb 4, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.
Derived itemized contributions on live regular reports and uncovered special-session dates. Internal account transfers and daily reports are excluded.
Report IDs: 101012447, 101045753.
Missing data does not establish zero giving. Display amounts are rounded.
Texans United for a Conservative Majority PAC
$165,000.00
- Cash
- $145,000.00
- Paid by others
- $20,000.00
- Total
- $165,000.00
Also funds 30 other sitting lawmakers.
Derived recipient stock · Sep 3, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.
TEC account match.
TeamSources
Derived itemized flow · Jun 30, 2025 to Jul 13, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.
Derived itemized contributions on live regular reports and uncovered special-session dates. Internal account transfers and daily reports are excluded.
Report IDs: 101012447, 101031840, 101035276, 101045753, 101059537, 101069128.
Texas Trial Lawyers Association PAC
$111,000.00
- Cash
- $105,000.00
- Paid by others
- $6,000.00
- Total
- $111,000.00
Also funds 137 other sitting lawmakers.
Derived recipient stock · Jul 24, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.
TEC account match.
TeamSources
Derived itemized flow · Jun 23, 2025 to Oct 18, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.
Derived itemized contributions on live regular reports and uncovered special-session dates. Internal account transfers and daily reports are excluded.
Report IDs: 101012447, 101031840, 101035276, 101045753, 101072124.
Texans for Truth and Liberty PAC
$106,000.00
- Cash
- $100,000.00
- Paid by others
- $6,000.00
- Total
- $106,000.00
Also funds 44 other sitting lawmakers.
Derived recipient stock · Jun 24, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.
TEC account match.
TeamSources
Derived itemized flow · Jun 25, 2025 to Feb 4, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.
Derived itemized contributions on live regular reports and uncovered special-session dates. Internal account transfers and daily reports are excluded.
Report IDs: 101012447, 101045753.
Votes
No floor vote loaded for this bill.
Fiscal
No fiscal note in the loaded record.
How this was graded
Adversarial review by claude-fable-5-1 at high effort: Smells.
Analysis of text version I by claude-fable-5-1, Oct 21, 2026, against the published rubric.
Sources
Texas House · Filed Mar 13, 2025
04/03/2025 H Referred to Appropriations: Apr 3 2025 12:38PM
Texas Legislature Online · Introduced
Data snapshot Oct 26, 2026 at 4:19 AM CDT. Grades, charges, quotes and corrections follow the published record.
House committee · Appropriations · Final status: Died in committee
Subjects
Financial--General
State Agencies, Boards & Commissions--Newly Proposed
CURRENCY & CURRENCY EXCHANGE
FEDERAL RELATIONS
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR
SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE
TERRORISM & INTERNAL SECURITY
COMPTROLLER OF PUBLIC ACCOUNTS
FISCAL RISK MANAGEMENT COMMISSION
Text
The text as introduced · 1,045 words
By: Hopper H.B. No. 4857 A BILL TO BE ENTITLED AN ACT relating to the creation of the Fiscal Risk Management Commission. BE IT ENACTED BY THE LEGISLATURE OF THE STATE OF TEXAS: SECTION 1. Subtitle C, Title 10, Government Code, is amended by adding Chapter 2119 to read as follows: CHAPTER 2119. FISCAL RISK MANAGEMENT COMMISSION Sec. 2119.0001. DEFINITIONS. In this chapter: (1) "Commission" means the Fiscal Risk Management Commission. (2) "State agency" means a board, commission, department, office, or other agency in the executive branch of state government created by the constitution or a statute of this state, including an institution of higher education as defined by Section 61.003, Education Code. Sec. 2119.0002. COMPOSITION. (a) The commission is composed of the following seven members: (1) the comptroller; (2) the speaker of the house of representatives or a member of the house of representatives designated by the speaker; (3) the lieutenant governor or a member of the senate designated by the lieutenant governor; and (4) four members of the public, appointed by the governor, who have experience with state and federal fiscal policy and budgetary analysis. (b) The comptroller shall serve as the presiding officer of the commission. (c) Public members serve at the pleasure of the governor. (d) The state auditor may on request provide advice and technical assistance to the commission. Sec. 2119.0003. COMPENSATION. A member of the commission serves without compensation but is entitled to reimbursement for actual expenses incurred in performing functions as a member of the commission, subject to any applicable limitation on reimbursement provided by general law or the General Appropriations Act. Sec. 2119.0004. COMMISSION DUTIES. (a) The commission shall: (1) meet at least once each year at the call of the presiding officer; and (2) study: (A) the effect of federal fiscal policy on this state's economy, including: (i) the percentage of this state's budget currently funded by federal money and the effect that a significant reduction or elimination of federal funding for state governments would have on this state's economy; (ii) the effect of a political or market-led default on the United States' debt obligations on this state's economy; and (iii) the amount of money earned in this state that is transferred to the federal government as compared to the amount of federal money received by this state from the federal government, and the effect of those transfers on businesses in this state; (B) the amount of federal money received by each state agency, and the effect that a significant reduction or elimination of federal funding for state governments would have on the continuing operation of, and the delivery of critical services by, each of those agencies; (C) the effect of the devaluation of the United States dollar on this state's economy, including an examination of: (i) the effect of a gradual devaluation, a loss of reserve currency status, or an outright collapse of the United States dollar on this state's economy; and (ii) the advisability of developing a contingency currency; (D) the risks presented by acts of economic terrorism, including: (i) the effect of power outages caused by acts of cyberterrorism, including an electromagnetic pulse, on financial markets and critical infrastructure in this state; and (ii) the effect of an energy embargo or the disruption of the food, water, or power supply chain on the ability of this state and state agencies to continue to provide critical services; and (E) any other macroeconomic threat to this state's economy the commission considers appropriate. (b) In conducting the study required by this section, the commission shall consult with and consider papers authored by private entities specializing in fiscal risk management readiness and response. The commission may not rely solely on papers authored by institutions of higher education. Sec. 2119.0005. FISCAL RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN. The commission biennially shall develop and publish a cohesive, in-depth plan to effectively and efficiently address the effects and risks identified by the commission in conducting the study required by Section 2119.0004. Sec. 2119.0006. REPORT. (a) Not later than September 1 of each even-numbered year, the commission shall submit a report to the governor and the legislature based on the commission's findings under Section 2119.0004 during the previous two-year period. (b) The report must include: (1) a complete explanation of the methods used by the commission in conducting the financial analysis required by the study; (2) a summary of the commission's findings under Section 2119.0004 and a copy of the plan created under Section 2119.0005; and (3) drafts of any proposed legislation needed to implement the commission's recommendations. (4) Following a resolution adopted by either chamber of the legislature declaring that the right of local self government has been impaired, per Section 1, Article I, Texas Constitution, the report shall further include: (i) an audit to determine the total sum benefit of federal assistance to any state agency, or all state agencies; (ii) the cost to the state to assume any federal assistance provided to that agency; (iii) a list of all critical government functions currently performed or delegated to the federal government by the state; (iv) the estimated cost to this state were it to resume responsibility for that function; and (v) a detailed financial projection for the state to assume sole responsibility for each, or every, function. (c) The first report due under this section must include a thorough evaluation of this state's need to develop a contingency currency in the event of a collapse of the United States dollar. This subsection expires September 1, 2027. SECTION 2. (a) Not later than the 60th day after the effective date of this Act, the governor and, if applicable, the speaker of the house of representatives and the lieutenant governor shall make the appointments and designations under Chapter 2119, Government Code, as added by this Act. (b) The Fiscal Risk Management Commission shall submit the first report required by Section 2119.0006, Government Code, as added by this Act, not later than September 1, 2026. SECTION 3. This Act takes effect immediately if it receives a vote of two-thirds of all the members elected to each house, as provided by Section 39, Article III, Texas Constitution. If this Act does not receive the vote necessary for immediate effect, this Act takes effect September 1, 2025.







