Monitoring the Session

HB 4857

Hopper Fiscal Risk Bill’s New Commission Can Only Write Reports

Died in committee

Verdict: Smells

SmellsInitial review
Rep. Andy HopperRHouse 64
All 3 charges, and why
Study, task force, commission, report

THE TEXT

…“each even-numbered year, the commission shall submit a report to”…

Bill text, introduced version (I)

The commission's duties are to meet, study, write a plan and submit a report with draft legislation. Any real action on the risks it studies waits for a future Legislature to pass those drafts.

Study, task force, commission, report
New fee, fund, board or appointees

THE TEXT

“CHAPTER 2119. FISCAL RISK MANAGEMENT COMMISSION”…

Bill text, introduced version (I)

The bill adds a new chapter creating a standing state commission with four public members appointed by the governor, who serve unpaid but with expense reimbursement. The caption says openly that it creates the commission.

New fee, fund, board or appointees
Carve-out

THE TEXT

…“commission shall consult with and consider papers authored by”…

Bill text, introduced version (I)

The text requires the commission to consult private entities specializing in fiscal risk management and bars it from relying solely on university research, steering the study's inputs toward one kind of business. It is a mandated role rather than money, so confidence is low.

Carve-out

Initial review · graded Oct 21, 2026 · Headline, summary and grade are analysis of the bill text, not a finding about any person · How we grade

Caption

relating to the creation of the Fiscal Risk Management Commission.

Caption from analyzed text · version I.

Summary

Studies dollar collapse and a contingency currency. Delivers draft bills. Must consult private firms.

The bill creates a new seven-member Fiscal Risk Management Commission led by the comptroller, with a House member, a senator, and four public members appointed by the governor. The commission must meet at least once a year and study risks such as cuts in federal money, a federal debt default, a dollar collapse, a possible contingency currency, and attacks on power and supply chains, and it must publish a plan every two years. On the ground it produces a report with draft bills for the governor and Legislature, the first due September 1, 2026, and has no power to change anything by itself.

Labels

Labels: NEVER GOT A HEARING. Filed Mar 13, 2025 and referred to the House Appropriations committee. No public hearing. The bill died.

Receipt

The receipt

89R-HB4857 · 2025-03-13

SOLD BY

+ 8 coauthors

ITEM

relating to the creation of the Fiscal Risk Management Commission.

WHAT IT DOES

Studies dollar collapse and a contingency currency. Delivers draft bills. Must consult private firms.

The bill creates a new seven-member Fiscal Risk Management Commission led by the comptroller, with a House member, a senator, and four public members appointed by the governor. The commission must meet at least once a year and study risks such as cuts in federal money, a federal debt default, a dollar collapse, a possible contingency currency, and attacks on power and supply chains, and it must publish a plan every two years. On the ground it produces a report with draft bills for the governor and Legislature, the first due September 1, 2026, and has no power to change anything by itself.

CHARGES

[x] STUDY, TASK FORCE, COMMISSION, REPORTanalysis confidence 75%

THE TEXT

…“each even-numbered year, the commission shall submit a report to”…

Bill text, introduced version (I)

The commission's duties are to meet, study, write a plan and submit a report with draft legislation. Any real action on the risks it studies waits for a future Legislature to pass those drafts.

[x] NEW FEE, FUND, BOARD OR APPOINTEESanalysis confidence 80%

THE TEXT

“CHAPTER 2119. FISCAL RISK MANAGEMENT COMMISSION”…

Bill text, introduced version (I)

The bill adds a new chapter creating a standing state commission with four public members appointed by the governor, who serve unpaid but with expense reimbursement. The caption says openly that it creates the commission.

[x] CARVE-OUTanalysis confidence 40%

THE TEXT

…“commission shall consult with and consider papers authored by”…

Bill text, introduced version (I)

The text requires the commission to consult private entities specializing in fiscal risk management and bars it from relying solely on university research, steering the study's inputs toward one kind of business. It is a mandated role rather than money, so confidence is low.

TOTAL

No fiscal note in the loaded record.

HISTORY

  1. Filed
  2. Read first time
  3. Referred to Appropriations
FILED UNDER

GOVERNMENT GROWTH UNDER A CONSERVATIVE BANNER

THE TEXT

“(4) four members of the public, appointed by the”…

Bill text, introduced version (I)

The bill creates a new permanent state commission with four new governor-appointed public seats, unpaid but reimbursed for expenses.

Smells

THANK YOU FOR CHECKING THE RECEIPT

CAMPAIGN PAID FOR BY

CAMPAIGN PAID FOR BY

Donors

Not tied to this bill.

Sources

The author's campaign account only. Own money and internal transfers are separate on the member page.

Derived itemized flow · Oct 27, 2024 to Oct 24, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.

Derived itemized contributions on live regular reports and uncovered special-session dates. Internal account transfers and daily reports are excluded.

Texans United for a Conservative Majority PAC$165,000.00

Texans United for a Conservative Majority PAC

$165,000.00

Cash
$145,000.00
Paid by others
$20,000.00
Total
$165,000.00
digital $20,000.00

Also funds 30 other sitting lawmakers.

Derived recipient stock · Sep 3, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.

TEC account match.

Team
Sources

Derived itemized flow · Jun 30, 2025 to Jul 13, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.

Derived itemized contributions on live regular reports and uncovered special-session dates. Internal account transfers and daily reports are excluded.

Report IDs: 101012447, 101031840, 101035276, 101045753, 101059537, 101069128.

Texas Trial Lawyers Association PAC$111,000.00

Texas Trial Lawyers Association PAC

$111,000.00

Cash
$105,000.00
Paid by others
$6,000.00
Total
$111,000.00
poll $6,000.00

Also funds 137 other sitting lawmakers.

Derived recipient stock · Jul 24, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.

TEC account match.

Team
Sources

Derived itemized flow · Jun 23, 2025 to Oct 18, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.

Derived itemized contributions on live regular reports and uncovered special-session dates. Internal account transfers and daily reports are excluded.

Report IDs: 101012447, 101031840, 101035276, 101045753, 101072124.

Texans for Truth and Liberty PAC$106,000.00

Texans for Truth and Liberty PAC

$106,000.00

Cash
$100,000.00
Paid by others
$6,000.00
Total
$106,000.00
poll $6,000.00

Also funds 44 other sitting lawmakers.

Derived recipient stock · Jun 24, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.

TEC account match.

Team
Sources

Derived itemized flow · Jun 25, 2025 to Feb 4, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.

Derived itemized contributions on live regular reports and uncovered special-session dates. Internal account transfers and daily reports are excluded.

Report IDs: 101012447, 101045753.

Money

Missing data does not establish zero giving. Display amounts are rounded.

×

Texans United for a Conservative Majority PAC

$165,000.00

Cash
$145,000.00
Paid by others
$20,000.00
Total
$165,000.00
digital $20,000.00

Also funds 30 other sitting lawmakers.

Derived recipient stock · Sep 3, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.

TEC account match.

Team
Sources

Derived itemized flow · Jun 30, 2025 to Jul 13, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.

Derived itemized contributions on live regular reports and uncovered special-session dates. Internal account transfers and daily reports are excluded.

Report IDs: 101012447, 101031840, 101035276, 101045753, 101059537, 101069128.

×

Texas Trial Lawyers Association PAC

$111,000.00

Cash
$105,000.00
Paid by others
$6,000.00
Total
$111,000.00
poll $6,000.00

Also funds 137 other sitting lawmakers.

Derived recipient stock · Jul 24, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.

TEC account match.

Team
Sources

Derived itemized flow · Jun 23, 2025 to Oct 18, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.

Derived itemized contributions on live regular reports and uncovered special-session dates. Internal account transfers and daily reports are excluded.

Report IDs: 101012447, 101031840, 101035276, 101045753, 101072124.

×

Texans for Truth and Liberty PAC

$106,000.00

Cash
$100,000.00
Paid by others
$6,000.00
Total
$106,000.00
poll $6,000.00

Also funds 44 other sitting lawmakers.

Derived recipient stock · Jun 24, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.

TEC account match.

Team
Sources

Derived itemized flow · Jun 25, 2025 to Feb 4, 2026. State data as of Nov 4, 2026.

Derived itemized contributions on live regular reports and uncovered special-session dates. Internal account transfers and daily reports are excluded.

Report IDs: 101012447, 101045753.

Votes

No floor vote loaded for this bill.

Fiscal

No fiscal note in the loaded record.

How this was graded

Adversarial review by claude-fable-5-1 at high effort: Smells.

Analysis of text version I by claude-fable-5-1, Oct 21, 2026, against the published rubric.

Sources

Texas House · Filed Mar 13, 2025

04/03/2025 H Referred to Appropriations: Apr 3 2025 12:38PM

Texas Legislature Online · Introduced

Data snapshot Oct 26, 2026 at 4:19 AM CDT. Grades, charges, quotes and corrections follow the published record.

Coauthors

House committee · Appropriations · Final status: Died in committee

Subjects

Financial--General

State Agencies, Boards & Commissions--Newly Proposed

CURRENCY & CURRENCY EXCHANGE

FEDERAL RELATIONS

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR

SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE

TERRORISM & INTERNAL SECURITY

COMPTROLLER OF PUBLIC ACCOUNTS

FISCAL RISK MANAGEMENT COMMISSION

Text

The text as introduced · 1,045 words

By: Hopper
H.B. No. 4857

A BILL TO BE ENTITLED

AN ACT

relating to the creation of the Fiscal Risk Management Commission.

BE IT ENACTED BY THE LEGISLATURE OF THE STATE OF TEXAS:

SECTION 1. Subtitle C, Title 10, Government Code, is

amended by adding Chapter 2119 to read as follows:

CHAPTER 2119. FISCAL RISK MANAGEMENT COMMISSION

Sec. 2119.0001. DEFINITIONS. In this chapter:

(1) "Commission" means the Fiscal Risk Management

Commission.

(2) "State agency" means a board, commission,

department, office, or other agency in the executive branch of

state government created by the constitution or a statute of this

state, including an institution of higher education as defined by

Section 61.003, Education Code.

Sec. 2119.0002. COMPOSITION. (a) The commission is

composed of the following seven members:

(1) the comptroller;

(2) the speaker of the house of representatives or a

member of the house of representatives designated by the speaker;

(3) the lieutenant governor or a member of the senate

designated by the lieutenant governor; and

(4) four members of the public, appointed by the

governor, who have experience with state and federal fiscal policy

and budgetary analysis.

(b) The comptroller shall serve as the presiding officer of

the commission.

(c) Public members serve at the pleasure of the governor.

(d) The state auditor may on request provide advice and

technical assistance to the commission.

Sec. 2119.0003. COMPENSATION. A member of the commission

serves without compensation but is entitled to reimbursement for

actual expenses incurred in performing functions as a member of the

commission, subject to any applicable limitation on reimbursement

provided by general law or the General Appropriations Act.

Sec. 2119.0004. COMMISSION DUTIES. (a) The commission

shall:

(1) meet at least once each year at the call of the

presiding officer; and

(2) study:

(A) the effect of federal fiscal policy on this

state's economy, including:

(i) the percentage of this state's budget

currently funded by federal money and the effect that a significant

reduction or elimination of federal funding for state governments

would have on this state's economy;

(ii) the effect of a political or

market-led default on the United States' debt obligations on this

state's economy; and

(iii) the amount of money earned in this

state that is transferred to the federal government as compared to

the amount of federal money received by this state from the federal

government, and the effect of those transfers on businesses in this

state;

(B) the amount of federal money received by each

state agency, and the effect that a significant reduction or

elimination of federal funding for state governments would have on

the continuing operation of, and the delivery of critical services

by, each of those agencies;

(C) the effect of the devaluation of the United

States dollar on this state's economy, including an examination of:

(i) the effect of a gradual devaluation, a

loss of reserve currency status, or an outright collapse of the

United States dollar on this state's economy; and

(ii) the advisability of developing a

contingency currency;

(D) the risks presented by acts of economic

terrorism, including:

(i) the effect of power outages caused by

acts of cyberterrorism, including an electromagnetic pulse, on

financial markets and critical infrastructure in this state; and

(ii) the effect of an energy embargo or the

disruption of the food, water, or power supply chain on the ability

of this state and state agencies to continue to provide critical

services; and

(E) any other macroeconomic threat to this

state's economy the commission considers appropriate.

(b) In conducting the study required by this section, the

commission shall consult with and consider papers authored by

private entities specializing in fiscal risk management readiness

and response. The commission may not rely solely on papers authored

by institutions of higher education.

Sec. 2119.0005. FISCAL RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN. The

commission biennially shall develop and publish a cohesive,

in-depth plan to effectively and efficiently address the effects

and risks identified by the commission in conducting the study

required by Section 2119.0004.

Sec. 2119.0006. REPORT. (a) Not later than September 1 of

each even-numbered year, the commission shall submit a report to

the governor and the legislature based on the commission's findings

under Section 2119.0004 during the previous two-year period.

(b) The report must include:

(1) a complete explanation of the methods used by the

commission in conducting the financial analysis required by the

study;

(2) a summary of the commission's findings under

Section 2119.0004 and a copy of the plan created under Section

2119.0005; and

(3) drafts of any proposed legislation needed to

implement the commission's recommendations.

(4) Following a resolution adopted by either chamber

of the legislature declaring that the right of local self

government has been impaired, per Section 1, Article I, Texas

Constitution, the report shall further include:

(i) an audit to determine the total sum

benefit of federal assistance to any state agency, or all state

agencies;

(ii) the cost to the state to assume any

federal assistance provided to that agency;

(iii) a list of all critical government

functions currently performed or delegated to the federal

government by the state;

(iv) the estimated cost to this state were

it to resume responsibility for that function; and

(v) a detailed financial projection for the

state to assume sole responsibility for each, or every, function.

(c) The first report due under this section must include a

thorough evaluation of this state's need to develop a contingency

currency in the event of a collapse of the United States dollar.

This subsection expires September 1, 2027.

SECTION 2. (a) Not later than the 60th day after the

effective date of this Act, the governor and, if applicable, the

speaker of the house of representatives and the lieutenant governor

shall make the appointments and designations under Chapter 2119,

Government Code, as added by this Act.

(b) The Fiscal Risk Management Commission shall submit the

first report required by Section 2119.0006, Government Code, as

added by this Act, not later than September 1, 2026.

SECTION 3. This Act takes effect immediately if it receives

a vote of two-thirds of all the members elected to each house, as

provided by Section 39, Article III, Texas Constitution. If this

Act does not receive the vote necessary for immediate effect, this

Act takes effect September 1, 2025.